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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--"It could happen," was a trademark tagline delivered by comedian Judy Tenuta as part of her act built around outlandish and unlikely predictions. Yes, pigs could fly, she said. She might cure cancer. She could have a one-on-one meeting with Tom Bradley, at the time the mayor of Los Angeles.
At first glance, skeptics might say recent comments from Doug Burgum, secretary of the Department of the Interior (DOI) made in an interview at this week's CERAWeek conference, sounded like a 21st century invocation of Tenuta's 20th century act. In an interview March 10 at the Houston conference, Burgum told Bloomberg Television, "Under the national energy emergency, which President Donald Trump has declared, we've got to keep every coal plant open. And if there had been units at a coal plant that have been shut down, we need to bring those back."
Burgum's remarks came shortly after another energy leader in Trump's second administration, Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Chris Wright, said Trump's National Energy Dominance Council was crafting a "market-based" plan to stem the closure of U.S. coal-fired power plants as it seeks to supply more electricity before an expected boom in demand from artificial intelligence, according to Bloomberg. Burgum serves as chairman of the council, while Wright serves as vice chair.
Before dismissing the comments from Wright and Burgum, recall they are operating under an "emergency" invoked by Trump at his inaugural speech January 20. For more on that, see January 21, 2025, article - Trump Invokes 'Energy Emergency,' Vows to 'Drill Baby Drill.'
The National Emergencies Act, which Congress enacted in 1976, grants a president far-reaching powers once he declares an "emergency" exists. Since its enactment, presidents have declared dozens of "emergencies" under that act, some of which have been renewed annually while others have lapsed. For example, a presidential emergency declared in 1979, and still in effect, ordered the freezing of Iranian assets as part of the U.S. response during the Iran hostage crisis. But others, for example separate prohibitions on commercial transactions with Nicaragua, South Africa and Panama, expired decades ago.
What else could be advanced under a presidential-declared "energy emergency"?
All of this would suggest that nothing is off the table or out of the realm of possibility when it comes to Trump, coal and coal-fired generation.
To date, the National Energy Dominance Council under Burgum's and Wright's leadership has been mum about what it is doing. Wright is a longtime critic of government intervention in energy markets, so his invocation of "market-based" ways to keep King Coal alive might suggest he could oppose far-reaching government interventions in energy markets. But Wright is not the chair of the National Energy Dominance Council: Burgum, previously governor of coal state North Dakota, is.
On February 3, on his first day as DOI secretary, Burgum signed two Secretary's Orders as part of implementing Trump's pursuit of "energy dominance." As described in a DOI statement, the goal of the two orders would be to have DOI "immediately undertake efforts to address our nation's inadequate energy supply and protect against this active threat to the national and economic security of the American people."
Under the first order, DOI "will immediately identify all emergency and legal authorities available to facilitate the identification, permitting, leasing, development, production, transportation, refining, distribution, exporting and generation of domestic energy resources and critical minerals." The second orders calls on the agency to "identify all emergency and other legal authorities available to expedite the completion of all authorized and appropriate infrastructure, energy, environmental, and natural resources projects. The secretary will report the use of such authorities and submit recommendations for exercising certain authorities as necessary to the president."
U.S. power plant owners have closed more than 150,000 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired generation over the last 15 years in response to tougher environmental regulations and competition from low-cost natural gas and increasingly competitive renewable generation. A good bit of those closures, approximately 41,000 MW, took place during Trump's first presidency.
Click on the image at right to see a graphic on the retirement of coal-fired generators since 2009, and projected retirements to 2029.
Industrial Info continues to track the planned closure of U.S. coal-fired generation. Earlier this year, it projected the retirement of about 73,000 MW of coal-fired generation over the next 10 years. But that number appears to be falling as coal's prospects appears to be brightening. For more on that, see February 6, 2025, article - Rising Electric Demand Growth Delays Retirement Dates for Coal-Fired Generation.
As well, coal use by U.S. electric generators has been on the decline.
Click on the image at right to see a graphic on coal use by U.S. electric generators since 2001.
Trump's well-known support for fossil fuels is one reason why there is more talk about coal's comeback in recent weeks. But more impactful is the unprecedented surge in planned electric demand created by proposed data centers, artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrency mining. For more on that issue, see March 4, 2025, article - SME Conference: Coal Has a Brighter Future -- Maybe and February 11, 2025, article - A Brighter Outlook for U.S. Thermal Coal Use is Taking Shape.
A February 25 projection from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said about 8,000 MW of coal-fired generation is slated for retirement in 2025, double the amount closed last year. But last year, an unusually low amount of coal-fired generation was retired.
Beyond the significant policy and legal questions raised by any federal government attempt to support coal and coal-fired generation, there is an important operational reality to consider. Unlike a light switch, coal-fired power plants retired years ago typically cannot quickly, easily or cost effectively be switched back on.
Britt Burt, Industrial Info's senior vice president of research for the Global Power Industry, said, "For the most part, once a coal-fired power is closed, it is not economic to restart it. However, there is at least one coal plant that has signed a PPA (power purchase agreement) with a data center. Plus, we may see coal is needed to support the overall grid. I believe this is the point of the president's emergency powers action. There will be challenges, but at the end of the day it will not surprise me to see some coal restart."
"There are several variables at play," he continued. "If an asset owner closed a generator with intentions of dismantling it in the future, this means they have not been maintaining the equipment. So it would require some extensive and expensive work to bring the plant back online. In other cases, if a plant is 'mothballed,' that means there has been some maintenance work taking place to maintain the integrity of the equipment, in the event it needed to be restarted. So while 'mothballed' plants would need to have some major investments in outage-type work to be done, they could be restarted."
Burt continued: "There are many things to consider. As with any project in the Power Industry, what is the return on investment (ROI) and how soon can they see realize positive gains? In capacity-constrained markets like ERCOT and PJM, and possibly MISO, ROIs might come sooner. I would say especially PJM."
Bottom line: Is coal coming back? Judy Tenuta didn't explore that possibility in her comedy act during the prior century, but increasingly, it appears that it could happen.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
At first glance, skeptics might say recent comments from Doug Burgum, secretary of the Department of the Interior (DOI) made in an interview at this week's CERAWeek conference, sounded like a 21st century invocation of Tenuta's 20th century act. In an interview March 10 at the Houston conference, Burgum told Bloomberg Television, "Under the national energy emergency, which President Donald Trump has declared, we've got to keep every coal plant open. And if there had been units at a coal plant that have been shut down, we need to bring those back."
Burgum's remarks came shortly after another energy leader in Trump's second administration, Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Chris Wright, said Trump's National Energy Dominance Council was crafting a "market-based" plan to stem the closure of U.S. coal-fired power plants as it seeks to supply more electricity before an expected boom in demand from artificial intelligence, according to Bloomberg. Burgum serves as chairman of the council, while Wright serves as vice chair.
Before dismissing the comments from Wright and Burgum, recall they are operating under an "emergency" invoked by Trump at his inaugural speech January 20. For more on that, see January 21, 2025, article - Trump Invokes 'Energy Emergency,' Vows to 'Drill Baby Drill.'
The National Emergencies Act, which Congress enacted in 1976, grants a president far-reaching powers once he declares an "emergency" exists. Since its enactment, presidents have declared dozens of "emergencies" under that act, some of which have been renewed annually while others have lapsed. For example, a presidential emergency declared in 1979, and still in effect, ordered the freezing of Iranian assets as part of the U.S. response during the Iran hostage crisis. But others, for example separate prohibitions on commercial transactions with Nicaragua, South Africa and Panama, expired decades ago.
What else could be advanced under a presidential-declared "energy emergency"?
- Could the president cite "national security" to order coal mines and coal-fired power plants not to close?
- Could the president order the federal government to pay financial incentives to owners of coal mines and coal-fired power plants to keep them competitive with other sources of generation?
- Could the president order a temporary pause on federal environmental regulations on coal mining and coal-fired power plants, again citing national exigencies?
All of this would suggest that nothing is off the table or out of the realm of possibility when it comes to Trump, coal and coal-fired generation.
To date, the National Energy Dominance Council under Burgum's and Wright's leadership has been mum about what it is doing. Wright is a longtime critic of government intervention in energy markets, so his invocation of "market-based" ways to keep King Coal alive might suggest he could oppose far-reaching government interventions in energy markets. But Wright is not the chair of the National Energy Dominance Council: Burgum, previously governor of coal state North Dakota, is.
On February 3, on his first day as DOI secretary, Burgum signed two Secretary's Orders as part of implementing Trump's pursuit of "energy dominance." As described in a DOI statement, the goal of the two orders would be to have DOI "immediately undertake efforts to address our nation's inadequate energy supply and protect against this active threat to the national and economic security of the American people."
Under the first order, DOI "will immediately identify all emergency and legal authorities available to facilitate the identification, permitting, leasing, development, production, transportation, refining, distribution, exporting and generation of domestic energy resources and critical minerals." The second orders calls on the agency to "identify all emergency and other legal authorities available to expedite the completion of all authorized and appropriate infrastructure, energy, environmental, and natural resources projects. The secretary will report the use of such authorities and submit recommendations for exercising certain authorities as necessary to the president."
U.S. power plant owners have closed more than 150,000 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired generation over the last 15 years in response to tougher environmental regulations and competition from low-cost natural gas and increasingly competitive renewable generation. A good bit of those closures, approximately 41,000 MW, took place during Trump's first presidency.
Industrial Info continues to track the planned closure of U.S. coal-fired generation. Earlier this year, it projected the retirement of about 73,000 MW of coal-fired generation over the next 10 years. But that number appears to be falling as coal's prospects appears to be brightening. For more on that, see February 6, 2025, article - Rising Electric Demand Growth Delays Retirement Dates for Coal-Fired Generation.
As well, coal use by U.S. electric generators has been on the decline.
Trump's well-known support for fossil fuels is one reason why there is more talk about coal's comeback in recent weeks. But more impactful is the unprecedented surge in planned electric demand created by proposed data centers, artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrency mining. For more on that issue, see March 4, 2025, article - SME Conference: Coal Has a Brighter Future -- Maybe and February 11, 2025, article - A Brighter Outlook for U.S. Thermal Coal Use is Taking Shape.
A February 25 projection from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said about 8,000 MW of coal-fired generation is slated for retirement in 2025, double the amount closed last year. But last year, an unusually low amount of coal-fired generation was retired.
Beyond the significant policy and legal questions raised by any federal government attempt to support coal and coal-fired generation, there is an important operational reality to consider. Unlike a light switch, coal-fired power plants retired years ago typically cannot quickly, easily or cost effectively be switched back on.
Britt Burt, Industrial Info's senior vice president of research for the Global Power Industry, said, "For the most part, once a coal-fired power is closed, it is not economic to restart it. However, there is at least one coal plant that has signed a PPA (power purchase agreement) with a data center. Plus, we may see coal is needed to support the overall grid. I believe this is the point of the president's emergency powers action. There will be challenges, but at the end of the day it will not surprise me to see some coal restart."
"There are several variables at play," he continued. "If an asset owner closed a generator with intentions of dismantling it in the future, this means they have not been maintaining the equipment. So it would require some extensive and expensive work to bring the plant back online. In other cases, if a plant is 'mothballed,' that means there has been some maintenance work taking place to maintain the integrity of the equipment, in the event it needed to be restarted. So while 'mothballed' plants would need to have some major investments in outage-type work to be done, they could be restarted."
Burt continued: "There are many things to consider. As with any project in the Power Industry, what is the return on investment (ROI) and how soon can they see realize positive gains? In capacity-constrained markets like ERCOT and PJM, and possibly MISO, ROIs might come sooner. I would say especially PJM."
Bottom line: Is coal coming back? Judy Tenuta didn't explore that possibility in her comedy act during the prior century, but increasingly, it appears that it could happen.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
